As 2010 draws to a close, I would like to summarize my view of the market for 2009, and offer an outlook for 2010. Despite the world financial crisis, militaria retained a strong showing in most areas this year. Uniforms and headgear were slow sellers, but the very best material in every category showed no signs of slowing down. The two elements of our field that were hit hard were the sale of private collections, and the ability to predict selling trends.

First, with respect to the sale of private collections, 2009 was not a good year to sell if you were getting out of the field. The reason is that if you had a very nice collection for sale, you had to price compete with those collectors who were hardest hit by the financial crisis, and were holding a fire-sale of their collections. And with many collections selling out at 50 cents on the dollar, that forced many retiring collectors to put off their plans until and unless the economy improves.

Second, with respect to predicting selling trends: gone are the days when a dealer or selling-collector could predict what something would sell for and when it could reasonably be expected to sell. In years past, with experience this was possible. You knew your customers, you knew the market, and you could make educated buying decisions. As 2009 drew to a close, it was very difficult to make predictions. As a result, buying became a very dangerous game, with disasterious consequences if you misjudged the market.

Hopefully as 2010 unfolds, our world economic situation will improve. However, with world governments launching wealth redistribution schemes to pay for lavish new spending programs, any economic recovery is tenuous at best. Unless countries figure out a way to reduce their debt without printing money, we could find ourselves in a "currency bubble" that would make the dot-com bubble and the real estate bubble seem tame by comparison. However, if inflation does hit (as it will if the government printing presses keep making new money), you can expect the price of everything to go up - including militaria.